Forecasting aggregate and disaggregates with common features.

The paper is focused on providing joint consistent forecasts for an aggregate and all its components and in showing that this indirect forecast of the aggregate is at least as accurate as the direct one. The procedure developed in the paper is a disaggregated approach based on single-equation models for the components, which take into account common stable features which some components share between them. The procedure is applied to forecasting euro area, UK and US inflation and it is shown that its forecasts are significantly more accurate than the ones obtained by the direct forecast of the aggregate or by dynamic factor models. A by-product of the procedure is the classification of a large number of components by restrictions shared between them, which could be also useful in other respects, as the application of dynamic factors, the definition of intermediate aggregates or the formulation of models with unobserved componentsCommon trends; Common serial correlation; Inflation; Euro Area; UK; US; Cointegration; Single-equation econometric models;

Forecasting aggregates and disaggregates with common features

This paper focuses on the provision of consistent forecasts for an aggregate economic indicator, such as a consumer price index and its components. The procedure developed is a disaggregated approach based on single-equation models for the components, which take into account the stable features that some components share, such as a common trend and common serial correlation. Our procedure starts by classifying a large number of components based on restrictions from common features. The result of this classification is a disaggregation map, which may also be useful in applying dynamic factors, defining intermediate aggregates or formulating models with unobserved components. We use the procedure to forecast inflation in the Euro area, the UK and the US. Our forecasts are significantly more accurate than either a direct forecast of the aggregate or various other indirect forecasts.Antoni Espasa acknowledges financial support from Ministerio de Educacin y Ciencia, proyect ECO 2009-0810

When and How a Judo Contest Ends: Analysis of Scores, Penalties, Rounds and Temporal Units in 2018, 2019 and 2021 World Championships

© 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/The main aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between how contests end (scores or penalties), the temporal units and the competition rounds regarding when the contest end in the 2018, 2019 and 2021 Judo World Championships. A total of 2340 contests involving 2244 elite judo athletes (1343 men and 901 women) were analysed. Pearson’s chi-squared (χ2) was implemented to analyse the association between variables, and the standardised residuals were used to analyse its interpretation; the strength of the associations was reported as Cramer’s V. Shapiro–Wilk and Kolmogorov–Smirnov were implemented to test the normality of the length of golden score (GS) sequences, and Kruskal–Wallis was applied for analysing GS sequences by championships. Mann–Whitney U was also implemented if a significant effect was detected. The level of significance was set at 0.05. The results were as follows: (1) Most contests ended before the accomplishment of the regular time (BRT), and they were won by ippon. (2) During BRT, the defeated accumulated more shido than the winner, while the opposite happened in contests finishing at the regular time (FRT). (3) Contests ending in the first and third minutes decreased, while contests ending in the second and fourth minutes increased; a longer length of the GS period was observed for women compared with men. (4) BRT contests were overrepresented in rounds 1 and 2, while extended time contests (EXT) in repechage, semi-final, bronze and final were overrepresented. (5) There were fewer waza-ari than expected during the preliminary rounds and more in the final rounds. The current study reveals cornerstone information that could be used to improve the training programs of elite judo athletes.Peer reviewe

GLUT1 protects prostate cancer cells from glucose deprivation-induced oxidative stress

Glucose, chief metabolic support for cancer cell survival and growth, is mainly imported into cells by facilitated glucose transporters (GLUTs). The increase in glucose uptake along with tumor progression is due to an increment of facilitative glucose transporters as GLUT1. GLUT1 prevents cell death of cancer cells caused by growth factors deprivation, but there is scarce information about its role on the damage caused by glucose deprivation, which usually occurs within the core of a growing tumor. In prostate cancer (PCa), GLUT1 is found in the most aggressive tumors, and it is regulated by androgens. To study the response of androgen-sensitive and insensitive PCa cells to glucose deprivation and the role of GLUT1 on survival mechanisms, androgen-sensitive LNCaP and castration-resistant LNCaP-R cells were employed. Results demonstrated that glucose deprivation induced a necrotic type of cell death which is prevented by antioxidants. Androgen-sensitive cells show a higher resistance to cell death triggered by glucose deprivation than castration-resistant cells. Glucose removal causes an increment of H2O2, an activation of androgen receptor (AR) and a stimulation of AMP-activated protein kinase activity. In addition, glucose removal increases GLUT1 production in androgen sensitive PCa cells. GLUT1 ectopic overexpression makes PCa cells more resistant to glucose deprivation and oxidative stress-induced cell death. Under glucose deprivation, GLUT1 overexpressing PCa cells sustains mitochondrial SOD2 activity, compromised after glucose removal, and significantly increases reduced glutathione (GSH). In conclusion, androgen-sensitive PCa cells are more resistant to glucose deprivation-induced cell death by a GLUT1 upregulation through an enhancement of reduced glutathione levels. Keywords: Glut1, Prostate cancer, Glucose deprivation, Androgen receptor, Glutathione, Oxidative stres

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Generación de estrategias en el sector de la telecomunicaciones

Esta investigación en Ericsson, empresa de Telecomunicaciones comprende su contexto a nivel internacional y nacional permite identificar puntos críticos en áreas estratégicas, como el servicio de soporte técnico al cliente, tema central de la misma.Maestría en Administración de las Telecomunicacione

Decolonization and the "third world" in problem. A PBL proposal for the students of secondary education

El presente Trabajo de Fin de Máster reivindica el Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas (ABP) para la enseñanza y aprendizaje de la Historia como metodología didáctica adecuada para desarrollar competencias cognitivas, sociales y cívicas en el alumnado de Educación Secundaria Obligatoria. A pesar de la amplia historia de la metodología, de sus exitosos resultados en las Ciencias Experimentales y de su adecuación para desarrollar competencias fundamentales, como es la capacidad para la resolución de problemas, apenas tiene uso en el área de las Ciencias Sociales. Por ello, hacemos una propuesta ABP en torno al tema del currículo la Descolonización y creación del “Tercer Mundo”. El tema seleccionado nos permitirá integrar en el estudio y debate del aula áreas ignoradas por el currículo académico, interesar a los estudiantes en temas vinculados con el mundo actual y colaborar en la integración del alumnado extranjero que, cada vez en mayor medida, puebla nuestras aulas. Además, hacemos un análisis de los resultados de la aplicación de la propuesta didáctica diseñada y sugerimos caminos por los que podría completarse. En el anexo se pueden encontrar algunos de los ejemplos realizados por los estudiantes junto a varias plantillas de evaluación.The present Final Report's Master claims about Problem Based Learning (PBL) for the teaching and learning of History as didactic methodology suited to develop cognitive, social and civic competences in the students of Obligatory Secondary Education. Notwithstanding of the wide methodology's history, its successful results in Experimental Sciences and its adequacy to development the fundamental competences, such as the ability to solve problems, scarcely is used in Social Science's areas. For this reason, we make a PBL proposal from the curriculum's issue, The Decolonization and creation of "Third World". The topic has been selected to integrate in the classrooms the study and debates, in the areas that are ignored by the academic curriculum, to interest students in issues related with the real world and foment the integration of foreigner students, who, in a bigger measure, populate our classrooms.Furthermore, we analyze the results of the application of the didactic proposal and we suggest ways in which it could be completed. In the annex there are some of the examples made by the students as well as several evaluation templates.Depto. de Didáctica de las Ciencias Experimentales , Sociales y MatemáticasFac. de EducaciónTRUEunpu